Norway, Australia to battle for Group C lead

Soccer Betting Lines

09/14/2007 - Hangzhou, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The top spot in Group C will be on the line on Saturday when Australia meets Norway in the second game for both teams.

Norway earned a tough 2-1 comeback win against Canada, while Australia recorded its first ever win in the World Cup with a 4-1 triumph against Ghana.

The Matildas entered the Ghana match with a 0-7-2 record in World Cup play, but showed why they can be considered a threat to advance past the group stage for the first time ever.

Striker Sarah Walsh was the most dangerous player on the field for Australia, scoring one goal and setting up another. She was a problem from the opening whistle for Ghana, and she will be counted on once again to lead the Australia attack.

Lisa DeVanna came off the bench to score twice in the second half and Heather Garriock tallied the other Australia goal and played a solid match as well.

The Australia defense was not tested all that much by a weak Ghana attack, so there are still question marks as to how strong this unit is.

Having come through the tough Asian qualifying group, Australia showed its quality, but we will get an idea of just how good the Matildas have become following the Norway game.

The Norwegians are an extremely sound team technically, and will not make the mistakes in defense that allowed Walsh to get into space. They also have a player in striker Ragnhild Gulbrandsen who will give the defense all it can handle.

Gulbrandsen got free inside the box on numerous occasions against Canada, scoring one goal and helping to set up the game winner. She is a dominant player in the air, and also has some skill with her feet as well. Australia captain Cheryl Salisbury will likely draw the assignment of keeping Gulbrandsen in check, which is a big task for any defender.

Norway is known as a team that favors short passes en route to a nice build up. However, against Canada, they showed the ability to use the long ball and prove that they are capable of making adjustments.

The team's second-half effort against Canada was dominant, and they will have no trouble with any team in their group if they can duplicate that performance.

Norway is one of the most complete teams in this tournament, and they should show that against Australia on Saturday and take control of the group.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

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In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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